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Premium: NVIDIA forecast

muji -

Let's circle back to NVIDIA before their Q325 quarter (Aug-Sep-Oct) on Wednesday, and catch up on their announcements since COMPUTEX and hints at spend. Part 2 tomorrow will recap announcements over the last few months, from SIGGRAPH to this week's SC'24. Part 3 will look at Q325 earnings.

  • Mgmt hinted that 2H25 would see Hopper demand increasing, despite (or perhaps due to) Blackwell delays. H200 and H20 should continue to rise in contribution.
  • Blackwell will NOT show up in Q3 beyond a sampling. That will mostly show up in Q4 and ramp further in Q1.
  • AI reasoning and multi-modality are both creating new scaling laws in inference.
  • NVIDIA is able to leverage its entire install base for inference, and is making performance improvements on the software side that has improved inference by 5x over the past year.